007 · BRIEFING

The week to Friday, 2 October 2026

Every figure below — in the commentary and in the tables alike — is a stored fact, a quoted primary-source document, or a judgement quoted from an earlier run of this engine, and every one is footnoted to its source. The facts and documents were collected as of Friday, 2 October 2026. All weeks · Review: Q3 2026.

The week's largest moves, each measured against that series' own 52-week range.

3.24%11
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS
+0.31pp on the week
0.86%10
ICE BofA US Corporate OAS
+0.05pp on the week
1,863.1313
ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index value
−16.93 on the week
$96.1616
WTI crude spot (EIA)
+10.93 on the week

Disinflation with steady growth keeps the regime benign, and persistence is high. But credit spreads widened across emerging, European and US high yield, and high-yield total returns fell. Reduce low-quality credit risk; take duration and quality instead.

Regime

The macro regime stays supportive, and the classification is not a close call. The current label is Goldilocks, with the modal probability well clear of the contraction alternative, and the transition estimate puts almost all the weight on staying in Goldilocks next period. The prior label was Overheating, so the move has been toward cooler inflation, not weaker demand. The inflation gap is firmly negative while the growth gap is positive, and the strength now visible in payrolls and the growth nowcast sits comfortably with that reading: a small measured gap against potential coexists with activity indicators at the top of their recent ranges.

The regime signal is strong enough to carry duration and quality, and not strong enough to justify holding low-quality credit through wider spreads.

Regime64 raw gaps growth gap across, inflation gap up. The dot is this month's raw gap pair, and the shaded band is the ±0.5 deadband inside which a gap keeps the sign it had. The growth gap is inside that band, so its sign is not settled: the dot sits where its raw value falls, not where the sign rule puts it. The washed corner is the quadrant REGIME's sign rule chose (Contraction); the HMM label is Goldilocks, marked in the bars. Period 2026-08-01, available 2026-09-01.
StagflationOverheatingContractionGoldilocksgrowth gap +0.06, inflation gap -1.10raw gapsContraction0.30Goldilocks0.55Overheating0.13Stagflation0.03rt_Contraction0.30rt_Goldilocks0.55rt_Overheating0.13rt_Stagflation0.03

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is not the binding variable this week; the regulatory channel is, and it argues for taking duration in Treasuries rather than carry in low-quality credit. Bowman's assessment of the recalibrated enhanced supplementary leverage ratio describes dealers with materially more balance sheet, reporting that the reforms have "improved Treasury market functioning and strengthened its resilience to stress by relaxing regulatory balance sheet constraints"1.

The mechanism is specific: dealers "increased their Treasury market positions, as all of the largest banks benefited from significantly greater headroom"2, and the gains concentrated in previously constrained firms. Bowman also points to "narrower bid-ask spreads, reduced intraday volatility during auction cycles, calmer funding conditions"3.

Deeper dealer capacity in government bonds lowers the cost of holding duration through a period when credit is repricing wider, which strengthens the case for rotating risk from spread into rates and quality. That support is structural rather than cyclical, so it should persist.

Policy rate and the two-year5, 1, 24, 25, 45, 46 Policy rate Market yield 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
United States
3%5%2025-102026-10Policy rateMarket yield
United Kingdom
3%5%2025-102026-10Policy rateMarket yield
Canada
2%4%2025-102026-10Policy rateMarket yield

Rates and curve

Take duration at the front and intermediate part of the curve rather than the long end. The two-year fell to 4.78%4, down 3bp5 on the week, while the ten-year rose +7bp6 to 5.24%7 and the thirty-year rose +12bp8 to 5.61%9, a steepening of +9bp10 in the two-to-ten spread to 0.45%11. The move was real, not inflationary: ten-year breakevens rose +2bp12 to 2.36%13, inside a fifty-two-week range whose high is 2.50%14, while the ten-year real yield rose +5bp15 to 2.88%16. The upper bound of the policy target was unchanged at 4.00%17.

A term-premium-led steepening with contained inflation expectations is consistent with the benign regime and argues for owning quality duration in the belly rather than the long bond.

Treasury curve1, 2, 3 2026-10-02 2026-09-25 the last observation on or before each date
4.6%5.8%2y10y30y2026-09-252026-10-02
Ten-year, real and breakeven2, 6, 7 Nominal Real Breakeven 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
1%6%2025-10-062026-10-02NominalNominalRealRealBreakevenBreakeven
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS2 4.78% −0.09pp 1
10-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS10 5.24% +0.06pp 2
30-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS30 5.61% +0.14pp 3
10Y minus 2Y Treasury spreadT10Y2Y 0.45% +0.09pp 4
Fed funds target range, upper limitDFEDTARU 4.00% unch. 5
10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield)DFII10 2.88% +0.03pp 6
10-Year breakeven inflationT10YIE 2.36% +0.02pp 7

Credit

Cut low-quality credit exposure and hold the risk in investment grade instead. High-yield spreads widened to 3.24%18, a one-week move of +31bp19 and +56bp20 over four weeks, leaving the series close to its twelve-month high of 3.46%21. The high-yield total return index fell -0.9%22 on the week to 1,863.1323, within reach of its twelve-month low of 1,829.9324. Investment grade moved far less: the spread widened +5bp25 to 0.86%26, still below its twelve-month high of 0.94%27, and the corporate total return index slipped -0.5%28. The damage is concentrated in the lowest-quality tier rather than spread across credit, which narrows the warning rather than overturning the benign regime.

Spreads10, 11, 35, 51 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
US investment grade
0.7%1%2025-102026-10US investment grade
US high yield
2.6%3.6%2025-102026-10US high yield
Euro high yield
2.4%3.4%2025-102026-10Euro high yield
EM corporate
1.2%2%2025-102026-10EM corporate
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA US Corporate OASBAMLC0A0CM 0.86% +0.07pp 10
ICE BofA US High Yield OASBAMLH0A0HYM2 3.24% +0.44pp 11
ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index valueBAMLCC0A0CMTRIV 3,491.58 −17.71 12
ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index valueBAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV 1,863.13 −20.44 13

Equities

Equity markets did not confirm the credit stress, which narrows the risk signal to credit alone. The broad US large-cap index ended the week at 7,722.7229, down -0.3%30, and sits below its fifty-two-week high of 7,798.9931. The Nasdaq Composite rose +0.5%32 to 27,190.8633, close to its own fifty-two-week high of 27,244.2834. Index-level calm is consistent with a benign regime, so the case for cutting low-quality credit rests on spreads rather than equities.

Indices8, 9 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
S&P 500
6,0008,0002025-102026-10S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite
20,00028,0002025-102026-10Nasdaq Composite
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
S&P 500 index levelSP500 7,722.72 −20.69 8
NASDAQ Composite index levelNASDAQCOM 27,190.86 +122.14 9

FX and commodities

Energy cuts against the benign regime at the margin, and keeps the case for quality duration from resting on commodities. WTI rose to 96.1635 a barrel, up +10.9336 on the week, while Brent eased -2.0537 to 113.9638 and is up +11.7239 over four weeks. The dollar is firm: the broad index at 120.3340, up +2.2641 over four weeks. Firm energy is the main risk to the disinflation path.

Dollar and crude14, 17 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
Broad dollar index
1171222025-102026-09Broad dollar index
Brent
$40$1402025-102026-09Brent
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & servicesDTWEXBGS 120.33 +0.82 14
Nominal advanced foreign economies USD indexDTWEXAFEGS 113.91 +0.76 15
WTI crude spot (EIA)DCOILWTICO $96.16 −0.25 16
Brent crude spot (EIA)DCOILBRENTEU $113.96 −0.93 17

Macro data

The macro data support staying long duration and quality rather than reaching for credit risk. Core PCE stands at 130.4642, an index high for the past year, but the rise from the year's low of 127.3643 is modest in pace. Payrolls at 159,04444 thousand and unemployment at 4.20%45, against a range low of 4.10%46, describe a labour market that is firm rather than tightening further. The growth nowcast at 3.68%47 sits at the top of its range, yet consumer sentiment at 51.7048 is well below its high of 56.6049. That combination argues for a growth gap only slightly above trend, not an acceleration.

SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
CPI-U all items, SACPIAUCSL 334.13August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-11 unch. 18
Core PCE price index, SAPCEPILFE 130.46August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-30 −0.20 19
Nonfarm payrolls, SAPAYEMS 159,044kSeptember 2026 · as known on 2026-10-02 −31k 20
Unemployment rate, SAUNRATE 4.20%September 2026 · as known on 2026-10-02 +0.10pp 21
Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAARGDPNOW 3.68%Q3 2026 · as known on 2026-10-01 −1.34pp 22
U. Michigan consumer sentimentUMCSENT 51.70August 2026 · as known on 2026-08-28 unch. 23

United Kingdom

Take UK duration at the intermediate point rather than the long end. Ten-year gilts rose to 5.37%50, up 4bp51 on the week and 30bp52 over four weeks, just under the one-year high of 5.38%53; twenty-year yields reached 5.73%54. Bank Rate was unchanged at 3.75%55 and sterling fell to 1.325056. The long end is being repriced for supply, not for policy.

Gilt curve25, 26, 27 2026-10-02 2026-09-25 the last observation on or before each date
4.8%5.8%5y10y20y2026-09-252026-10-02
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Bank RateGBPOL 3.75% unch. 24
5-year gilt nominal par yieldGB5Y 4.92% +0.04pp 25
10-year gilt nominal par yieldGB10Y 5.37% +0.08pp 26
20-year gilt nominal par yieldGB20Y 5.73% +0.10pp 27
SONIA, sterling overnight index averageIUDSOIA 3.73% unch. 28
USD per GBPDEXUSUK 1.3250 −0.0122 29
UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTGBM156S 4.90%May 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 30
UK real GDP, SA, GBP millionNGDPRSAXDCGBQ 712,545.00Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 31

Euro area

European high yield confirms the credit signal rather than contradicting it: spreads widened to 3.17%57, a move of +38bp58 on the week and +51bp59 over four weeks, pushing toward the year high of 3.37%60. Rates went the other way, with the two-year at 3.11%61, down 14bp62, and the ten-year at 3.59%63. Duration in euro government bonds is the better expression of the benign regime than European high yield.

Euro area AAA curve32, 33 2026-10-02 2026-09-25 the last observation on or before each date
3%3.8%2y10y2026-09-252026-10-02
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Euro area AAA 2-year spot yieldEA2Y 3.11% −0.12pp 32
Euro area AAA 10-year spot yieldEA10Y 3.59% +0.03pp 33
USD per EURDEXUSEU 1.1400 −0.0064 34
ICE BofA Euro High Yield OASBAMLHE00EHYIOAS 3.17% +0.40pp 35
Euro area HICP, all items, NSACP0000EZ19M086NEST 103.66August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-17 unch. 36
Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR millionCLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19 2,913,099.70Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 37

Japan

Japan is the clearest case for duration risk being repriced upward rather than down. The ten-year yield rose to 3.09%64, a fifty-two-week high, with the thirty-year at 4.12%65 and the two-year at 1.94%66. The Bank of Japan said it will "continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation"67. Equities absorbed it, the Nikkei gaining +2.9%68 on the week.

Hold duration outside Japan, not in it.

JGB curve38, 39, 40 2026-10-02 2026-09-25 the last observation on or before each date
1%5%2y10y30y2026-09-252026-10-02
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-year JGB yieldJP2Y 1.94% +0.03pp 38
10-year JGB yieldJP10Y 3.09% +0.02pp 39
30-year JGB yieldJP30Y 4.12% +0.01pp 40
JPY per USDDEXJPUS 157.18 +0.31 41
Nikkei 225 index levelNIKKEI225 68,309.46 +1,945.26 42
Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTJPM156S 2.40%July 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 43
Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billionJPNRGDPEXP 598,950.50Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 44

Canada

Canadian duration is a clean way to take the quality trade. The policy rate held at 2.25%69, the two-year fell 8bp70 to 3.27%71 and the ten-year was unchanged at 3.94%72. Unemployment at 6.40%73 sits at its one-year low. Macklem noted that elevated oil and fuel prices have "pushed inflation above the 2% target"74, which limits the easing on offer. The front end is close to fully priced here.

Government of Canada curve46, 47 2026-10-02 2026-09-25 the last observation on or before each date
3.2%4%2y10y2026-09-252026-10-02
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Target for the overnight rateCAPOL 2.25% unch. 45
2-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA2Y 3.27% −0.12pp 46
10-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA10Y 3.94% −0.03pp 47
CAD per USDDEXCAUS 1.4140 +0.0132 48
Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRUNTTTTCAM156S 6.40%August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 49
Canada real GDP, SA, CAD millionNGDPRSAXDCCAQ 631,031.80Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 50

Emerging markets

Emerging market credit confirms the case for cutting low-quality risk. EM corporate spreads widened to 1.61%75, up +21bp76 on the week, and EM high yield widened to 3.41%77, up +48bp78. Currencies did not contradict the benign macro backdrop: the broad EM dollar index sits at 128.5679 and EM equity volatility eased -0.4080 to 26.6981. The stress is in credit quality, not in growth.

EM spread and volatility52, 53 52 weeks to 2026-10-02
EM high yield corporate
2%4%2025-102026-10EM high yield corporate
EM equity volatility
10502025-102026-10EM equity volatility
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMCBPIOAS 1.61% +0.27pp 51
ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS 3.41% +0.59pp 52
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility IndexVXEEMCLS 26.69 +1.43 53
Nominal EM economies USD indexDTWEXEMEGS 128.56 +0.89 54
CNY per USDDEXCHUS 6.7110 +0.0135 55
BRL per USDDEXBZUS 5.1921 +0.0325 56
INR per USDDEXINUS 95.810 −0.060 57
MXN per USDDEXMXUS 17.6932 +0.4478 58
KRW per USDDEXKOUS 1,356.51 −31.46 59

Fiscal and trade policy

Policy this week carried no new fiscal or trade impulse that changes the credit call. The administration's output was a manufacturing proclamation claiming "the greatest reshoring of American manufacturing in our Nation’s history"82 on the back of tariffs, and an executive order on tick and mosquito control. Neither alters funding conditions or spread dynamics. The absence of a fiscal or trade shock leaves the widening in high yield as an internal credit event, which is why we fund duration and quality from the low-quality sleeve rather than from risk overall.

What changed

The change is in where risk is priced, not in the level of rates. The earlier reading asked to "Stay short duration, favour the front end only where carry compensates, and keep equity risk modest"83; this week the pressure moved into credit. US high yield spreads widened to 3.24%18, a move of +31bp19, and emerging market high yield widened +48bp78. Reduce low-quality credit exposure.

The front-end case survives. The two-year fell -3bp5 while the thirty-year rose +12bp8, and the policy rate was unchanged at 4.00%17. Only a renewed rise in front-end yields would undo this.

Model-based indicators

SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond (Board three-factor model)THREEFYTP10 1.02% +0.06pp 60
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexNFCI −0.55 +0.01 61
Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions IndexANFCI −0.57 unch. 62
10-year expected inflation (Cleveland Fed model)EXPINF10YR 2.57%September 2026 · as known on 2026-09-11 unch. 63

Sources for the commentary

  1. Bowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR ¶12 (2026-10-01)
  2. Bowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR ¶14 (2026-10-01)
  3. Bowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR ¶20 (2026-10-01)
  4. DGS2.latest = DGS2[2026-10-01] (2026-10-02)
  5. DGS2.chg_1w = DGS2[2026-10-01] - DGS2[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  6. DGS10.chg_1w = DGS10[2026-10-01] - DGS10[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  7. DGS10.latest = DGS10[2026-10-01] (2026-10-02)
  8. DGS30.chg_1w = DGS30[2026-10-01] - DGS30[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  9. DGS30.latest = DGS30[2026-10-01] (2026-10-02)
  10. T10Y2Y.chg_1w = T10Y2Y[2026-10-02] - T10Y2Y[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  11. T10Y2Y.latest = T10Y2Y[2026-10-02] (2026-10-02)
  12. T10YIE.chg_1w = T10YIE[2026-10-02] - T10YIE[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  13. T10YIE.latest = T10YIE[2026-10-02] (2026-10-02)
  14. T10YIE.hi_52w = max(T10YIE[2025-10-06..2026-10-02]) (2026-10-02)
  15. DFII10.chg_1w = DFII10[2026-10-01] - DFII10[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  16. DFII10.latest = DFII10[2026-10-01] (2026-10-02)
  17. DFEDTARU.latest = DFEDTARU[2026-10-02] (2026-10-02)
  18. BAMLH0A0HYM2.latest = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  19. BAMLH0A0HYM2.chg_1w = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-10-01] - BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  20. BAMLH0A0HYM2.chg_4w = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-10-01] - BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-09-04] (2026-10-01)
  21. BAMLH0A0HYM2.hi_52w = max(BAMLH0A0HYM2[2025-10-06..2026-10-01]) (2026-10-01)
  22. BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV.pct_1w = (BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2026-10-01] - BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2026-09-25]) / BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2026-09-25] * 100 (2026-10-01)
  23. BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV.latest = BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  24. BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV.lo_52w = min(BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2025-10-06..2026-10-01]) (2026-10-01)
  25. BAMLC0A0CM.chg_1w = BAMLC0A0CM[2026-10-01] - BAMLC0A0CM[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  26. BAMLC0A0CM.latest = BAMLC0A0CM[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  27. BAMLC0A0CM.hi_52w = max(BAMLC0A0CM[2025-10-06..2026-10-01]) (2026-10-01)
  28. BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV.pct_1w = (BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-10-01] - BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-09-25]) / BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-09-25] * 100 (2026-10-01)
  29. S&P 500 index level (2026-10-03)
  30. SP500.pct_1w = (SP500[2026-10-02] - SP500[2026-09-25]) / SP500[2026-09-25] * 100 (2026-10-03)
  31. SP500.hi_52w = max(SP500[2025-10-06..2026-10-02]) (2026-10-03)
  32. NASDAQCOM.pct_1w = (NASDAQCOM[2026-10-02] - NASDAQCOM[2026-09-25]) / NASDAQCOM[2026-09-25] * 100 (2026-10-02)
  33. NASDAQCOM.latest = NASDAQCOM[2026-10-02] (2026-10-02)
  34. NASDAQCOM.hi_52w = max(NASDAQCOM[2025-10-06..2026-10-02]) (2026-10-02)
  35. DCOILWTICO.latest = DCOILWTICO[2026-09-29] (2026-09-30)
  36. DCOILWTICO.chg_1w = DCOILWTICO[2026-09-29] - DCOILWTICO[2026-09-25] (2026-09-30)
  37. DCOILBRENTEU.chg_1w = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-29] - DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-25] (2026-09-30)
  38. DCOILBRENTEU.latest = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-29] (2026-09-30)
  39. DCOILBRENTEU.chg_4w = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-29] - DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-04] (2026-09-30)
  40. DTWEXBGS.latest = DTWEXBGS[2026-09-25] (2026-09-28)
  41. DTWEXBGS.chg_4w = DTWEXBGS[2026-09-25] - DTWEXBGS[2026-09-04] (2026-09-28)
  42. PCEPILFE.latest = PCEPILFE[2026-08-01] (2026-09-30)
  43. PCEPILFE.lo_52w = min(PCEPILFE[2025-11-01..2026-08-01]) (2026-09-30)
  44. PAYEMS.latest = PAYEMS[2026-09-01] (2026-10-02)
  45. UNRATE.latest = UNRATE[2026-09-01] (2026-10-02)
  46. UNRATE.lo_52w = min(UNRATE[2025-11-01..2026-09-01]) (2026-10-02)
  47. GDPNOW.latest = GDPNOW[2026-07-01] (2026-10-01)
  48. UMCSENT.latest = UMCSENT[2026-08-01] (2026-08-28)
  49. UMCSENT.hi_52w = max(UMCSENT[2025-11-01..2026-08-01]) (2026-08-28)
  50. GB10Y.latest = GB10Y[2026-09-30] (2026-10-02)
  51. GB10Y.chg_1w = GB10Y[2026-09-30] - GB10Y[2026-09-25] (2026-10-02)
  52. GB10Y.chg_4w = GB10Y[2026-09-30] - GB10Y[2026-09-04] (2026-10-02)
  53. GB10Y.hi_52w = max(GB10Y[2025-10-06..2026-09-30]) (2026-10-02)
  54. GB20Y.latest = GB20Y[2026-09-30] (2026-10-02)
  55. GBPOL.latest = GBPOL[2026-10-01] (2026-10-02)
  56. DEXUSUK.latest = DEXUSUK[2026-09-25] (2026-09-28)
  57. BAMLHE00EHYIOAS.latest = BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  58. BAMLHE00EHYIOAS.chg_1w = BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2026-10-01] - BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  59. BAMLHE00EHYIOAS.chg_4w = BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2026-10-01] - BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2026-09-04] (2026-10-01)
  60. BAMLHE00EHYIOAS.hi_52w = max(BAMLHE00EHYIOAS[2025-10-06..2026-10-01]) (2026-10-01)
  61. EA2Y.latest = EA2Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  62. EA2Y.chg_1w = EA2Y[2026-10-01] - EA2Y[2026-09-25] (2026-10-03)
  63. EA10Y.latest = EA10Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  64. JP10Y.latest = JP10Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  65. JP30Y.latest = JP30Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  66. JP2Y.latest = JP2Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  67. Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, 2026-09-18 ¶5 (2026-09-18)
  68. NIKKEI225.pct_1w = (NIKKEI225[2026-10-02] - NIKKEI225[2026-09-25]) / NIKKEI225[2026-09-25] * 100 (2026-10-02)
  69. CAPOL.latest = CAPOL[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  70. CA2Y.chg_1w = CA2Y[2026-10-01] - CA2Y[2026-09-25] (2026-10-03)
  71. CA2Y.latest = CA2Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  72. CA10Y.latest = CA10Y[2026-10-01] (2026-10-03)
  73. LRUNTTTTCAM156S.latest = LRUNTTTTCAM156S[2026-08-01] (2026-09-15)
  74. Adapting to structural forces, navigating uncertainty ¶5 (2026-09-21)
  75. BAMLEMCBPIOAS.latest = BAMLEMCBPIOAS[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  76. BAMLEMCBPIOAS.chg_1w = BAMLEMCBPIOAS[2026-10-01] - BAMLEMCBPIOAS[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  77. BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS.latest = BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  78. BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS.chg_1w = BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS[2026-10-01] - BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  79. DTWEXEMEGS.latest = DTWEXEMEGS[2026-09-25] (2026-09-28)
  80. VXEEMCLS.chg_1w = VXEEMCLS[2026-10-01] - VXEEMCLS[2026-09-25] (2026-10-01)
  81. VXEEMCLS.latest = VXEEMCLS[2026-10-01] (2026-10-01)
  82. National Manufacturing Day, 2026 ¶3 (2026-10-02)
  83. institutional_weekly run 26 (2026-09-11)

The same piece at other lengths, written from the same gated evidence (markdown): the brief version, the extended version.

Primary sources this week

Documents published 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-02 by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the White House, collected verbatim. Each excerpt is the document's first substantive paragraph, quoted verbatim.

  1. Federal Reserve · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Bowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR

    The U.S. Treasury market plays a foundational role in the U.S. economy. It is central to the transmission of monetary policy, the funding of the federal government, and the stability of the broader financial system. Because large banks play such a critical role in this market,…

  2. Federal Reserve · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Jefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

    This is a consequential moment for the U.S. economy and a challenging time for monetary policymakers. The economy is being shaped by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), shifting geopolitical dynamics, and underlying demographic trends. Compounding these…

  3. Federal Reserve · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Waller, The Data Version of Godzilla versus Kong: FRED Takes on AI

    Thank you, Keith, and while it is always an honor to represent the Federal Reserve and speak at public events, being here today is truly a special privilege for me. In the 17 years that I have spent in different roles for the Fed, one of the things that I am most proud of is the…

  4. Federal Reserve · Speech · Wednesday, 30 September 2026
    Cook, The Dual Mandate in Rural America

    Thank you, President Barkin, for that kind introduction. And thank you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and your partners across the Federal Reserve System for organizing this timely and important conference this year and for the past several years.1 It is a delight and a…

  5. Federal Reserve · Speech · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Waller, Payments in the Age of AI Agents

    Thank you for inviting me to speak here today.1 Last year at Sibos I leaned into the conference theme and discussed how a range of emerging technologies could shape the next frontier in global payments.2 Consistent with this year's theme, today I want to focus more specifically…

  6. Federal Reserve · Speech · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Barr, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy

    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 It's wonderful to be back in Michigan and in this great city. For more than a century, Detroit has been at the center of the U.S. economy, driving America's growth and prosperity, while also reflecting the profound forces…

  7. Federal Reserve · Speech · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Bowman, Opening Remarks

    The [Tab] key may be used in combination with the [Enter/Return] key to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.

  8. Federal Reserve · Speech · Monday, 28 September 2026
    Cook, An Update on AI and the Economy

    Thank you, Freada and Mitch, for that kind introduction. I appreciate the invitation to speak here at Oakland Tech Week and for the opportunity to return to the East Bay, where I lived and spent several formative years when I attended graduate school at Berkeley.1 Oakland was a…

  9. White House · Presidential action · Friday, 2 October 2026
    National Manufacturing Day, 2026

    For 250 years, American workers have been the driving force behind our Nation’s strength, prosperity, and industrial might. Their skill, ingenuity, and determination have fueled our economy and carried American manufacturing to new heights. On National Manufacturing Day, we…

  10. White House · Presidential action · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Eliminating Disease-Carrying Pests And Restoring Enjoyment Of The Great Outdoors

    Section 1. Background and Purpose. Ticks and mosquitoes are among the deadliest animals worldwide, transmitting major diseases that impose growing health and economic burdens on the American public. Foreign, invasive mosquitoes, especially the Asian tiger and Egyptian…

  11. White House · Presidential action · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Inaugurating The Era Of Super Intelligence

    Section 1. Purpose. America stands at the forefront of a new technological revolution in intelligence. The modern field of artificial intelligence was born in the United States, where American scientists first gave the field its name and laid the foundations for its development.…

  12. White House · Presidential action · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Streamlining Access to Government Services Through America.gov

    Section 1. Purpose. For generations, Americans seeking essential services from the Federal Government have been required to navigate a system organized around the structure of Government rather than the needs of the people. Americans must search across numerous executive…

  13. White House · Presidential action · Monday, 28 September 2026
    Nominations Sent to the Senate

    Carl Bednarski, of Michigan, to be a Member of the Farm Credit Administration Board, Farm Credit Administration, for a term expiring May 21, 2034.

  14. Bank of England · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    New horizons: the legal and commercial frontier of digital assets − speech by Sasha Mills

    Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to be with you today. Thank you to Hogan Lovells and Global Digital Finance for bringing together financial institutions, policymakers, regulators and technology innovators at a moment when the digital-assets debate is changing in an important…

  15. Bank of England · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Financial conditions: what’s priced in? − speech by Catherine L. Mann

    The conflict in the Middle East has generated significant volatility and financial market repricing in the UK, relating to uncertainty around the evolution of the conflict, the outlook for UK inflation, and our monetary policy response. Financial conditions are an essential…

  16. Bank of England · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    A unique vantage point − speech by Nathanaël Benjamin

    Good afternoon, and my thanks to ISDA for inviting me to speak at this year’s London Derivatives Trading and Treasury Forum. It is a pleasure to be here.

  17. Bank of England · Speech · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Searching for signposts − speech by Alan Taylor

    It is very much an honour and a pleasure to be here with you today at NIESR, and my thanks to David Aikman for inviting me to give the 2026 Dow Lecture.

  18. Bank of England · Speech · Monday, 28 September 2026
    Quantitative tightening: the next chapter − speech by Dave Ramsden

    Thank you to the Money, Macro and Finance Society (MMF) for co-hosting this event today. It’s a little over three years ago that I delivered my last speech on Quantitative Tightening (QT)footnote [1], where again the MMF kindly co-hosted the event.

  19. European Central Bank · Speech · Friday, 2 October 2026
    Boris Vujčić: Resilience, integration and competitiveness: building the future of European banking

    As we know, the ESRB was established 15 years ago as the EU’s macroprudential oversight body, in response to the global financial crisis. I have contributed to its work for the past 13 years, so I feel very at home here.

  20. European Central Bank · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain

    www.ecb.europa.eu © ECB-CONFIDENTIAL Central banks on-chain 1 The Future of Money Conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart Bank of England, London, 1 October 2026 Isabel Schnabel Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

  21. European Central Bank · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Christine Lagarde: Where AI risks meet

    It is a pleasure to welcome you to the tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), as we mark 15 years since its creation.

  22. European Central Bank · Speech · Wednesday, 30 September 2026
    Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks

    Inflation is back and weighing once again on people’s everyday lives. Just as the euro area was putting the post-pandemic inflation surge behind it, new shocks have hit.

  23. European Central Bank · Speech · Wednesday, 30 September 2026
    Frank Elderson: Supervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectiveness

    Banks are operating in an increasingly complex environment shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, rapid technological change, volatile energy and commodity prices, rising inflation, demographic changes, growing interconnectedness with non-bank financial institutions, and…

  24. European Central Bank · Speech · Monday, 28 September 2026
    Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament

    AI could significantly enhance Europe’s productivity, competitiveness and living standards. But it will also affect – and to some extent is already affecting – investment, labour markets and inflation, and it therefore also matters for monetary policy.

  25. Bank of Canada · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    Canada’s housing affordability dilemma

    I’m very happy to be giving this speech in Victoria today. This city is home to me. I spend most of my time in Ottawa now, but Victoria has been my home base for more than 20 years.

  26. Bank of Canada · Speech · Thursday, 1 October 2026
    The complexity of housing affordability

    Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about housing affordability and why it is so difficult to fix, explaining that housing has become about more than just a place to live. It is now closely tied to household wealth, financial stability and economic growth.

  27. Bank of Canada · Speech · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
    Repo markets and monetary policy implementation

    I am looking forward to a great discussion today. Before we get to the conversation, I’d like to take a few minutes to update you on two areas of work at the Bank of Canada that will be of particular interest to this audience.

Sources

  1. 2-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2, vintage 2026-10-02
  2. 10-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, vintage 2026-10-02
  3. 30-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS30, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30, vintage 2026-10-02
  4. 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread — FRED series T10Y2Y, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y, vintage 2026-10-02
  5. Fed funds target range, upper limit — FRED series DFEDTARU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU, vintage 2026-10-02
  6. 10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield) — FRED series DFII10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10, vintage 2026-10-02
  7. 10-Year breakeven inflation — FRED series T10YIE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE, vintage 2026-10-02
  8. S&P 500 index level — FRED series SP500, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500, vintage 2026-10-03
  9. NASDAQ Composite index level — FRED series NASDAQCOM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM, vintage 2026-10-02
  10. ICE BofA US Corporate OAS — FRED series BAMLC0A0CM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM, vintage 2026-10-01
  11. ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2, vintage 2026-10-01
  12. ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, vintage 2026-10-01
  13. ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, vintage 2026-10-01
  14. Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & services — FRED series DTWEXBGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS, vintage 2026-09-28
  15. Nominal advanced foreign economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXAFEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXAFEGS, vintage 2026-09-28
  16. WTI crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILWTICO, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO, vintage 2026-09-30
  17. Brent crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILBRENTEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU, vintage 2026-09-30
  18. CPI-U all items, SA — FRED series CPIAUCSL, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, vintage 2026-09-11
  19. Core PCE price index, SA — FRED series PCEPILFE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE, vintage 2026-09-30
  20. Nonfarm payrolls, SA — FRED series PAYEMS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, vintage 2026-10-02
  21. Unemployment rate, SA — FRED series UNRATE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, vintage 2026-10-02
  22. Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAAR — FRED series GDPNOW, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW, vintage 2026-10-01
  23. U. Michigan consumer sentiment — FRED series UMCSENT, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, vintage 2026-08-28
  24. Bank Rate — BOE series GBPOL, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-10-02
  25. 5-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB5Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-10-02
  26. 10-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB10Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-10-02
  27. 20-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB20Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-10-02
  28. SONIA, sterling overnight index average — FRED series IUDSOIA, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IUDSOIA, vintage 2026-10-02
  29. USD per GBP — FRED series DEXUSUK, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSUK, vintage 2026-09-28
  30. UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTGBM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  31. UK real GDP, SA, GBP million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, vintage 2026-09-07
  32. Euro area AAA 2-year spot yield — ECB series EA2Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-10-03
  33. Euro area AAA 10-year spot yield — ECB series EA10Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-10-03
  34. USD per EUR — FRED series DEXUSEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU, vintage 2026-09-28
  35. ICE BofA Euro High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, vintage 2026-10-01
  36. Euro area HICP, all items, NSA — FRED series CP0000EZ19M086NEST, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST, vintage 2026-09-17
  37. Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR million — FRED series CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, vintage 2026-09-07
  38. 2-year JGB yield — MOF series JP2Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-10-03
  39. 10-year JGB yield — MOF series JP10Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-10-03
  40. 30-year JGB yield — MOF series JP30Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-10-03
  41. JPY per USD — FRED series DEXJPUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  42. Nikkei 225 index level — FRED series NIKKEI225, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225, vintage 2026-10-02
  43. Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTJPM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  44. Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billion — FRED series JPNRGDPEXP, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNRGDPEXP, vintage 2026-09-07
  45. Target for the overnight rate — BOC series CAPOL, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-10-03
  46. 2-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA2Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-10-03
  47. 10-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA10Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-10-03
  48. CAD per USD — FRED series DEXCAUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  49. Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRUNTTTTCAM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTCAM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  50. Canada real GDP, SA, CAD million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, vintage 2026-09-07
  51. ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMCBPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS, vintage 2026-10-01
  52. ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, vintage 2026-10-01
  53. CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index — FRED series VXEEMCLS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXEEMCLS, vintage 2026-10-01
  54. Nominal EM economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXEMEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXEMEGS, vintage 2026-09-28
  55. CNY per USD — FRED series DEXCHUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  56. BRL per USD — FRED series DEXBZUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXBZUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  57. INR per USD — FRED series DEXINUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXINUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  58. MXN per USD — FRED series DEXMXUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  59. KRW per USD — FRED series DEXKOUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS, vintage 2026-09-28
  60. Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond (Board three-factor model) — FRED series THREEFYTP10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFYTP10, vintage 2026-09-29
  61. Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index — FRED series NFCI, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI, vintage 2026-09-30
  62. Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index — FRED series ANFCI, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ANFCI, vintage 2026-09-30
  63. 10-year expected inflation (Cleveland Fed model) — FRED series EXPINF10YR, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPINF10YR, vintage 2026-09-11
  64. Regime label, growth and inflation gaps, transition probabilities — REGIME series Goldilocks, /regime/output/regime_labels.csv, vintage 2026-09-01