007 · BRIEFING

The week to Friday, 25 September 2026

Every figure below is a stored fact from a primary source, collected as of Friday, 25 September 2026. Sources are footnoted. Primary-source documents for the week are listed below. No commentary was written for this week. All weeks · Review: Q3 2026.

Rates & curve

Treasury curve1, 2, 3 2026-09-25 2026-09-18 the last observation on or before each date
4.6%5.6%2y10y30y2026-09-182026-09-25
Ten-year, real and breakeven2, 6, 7 Nominal Real Breakeven 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
1%6%2025-09-292026-09-25NominalNominalRealRealBreakevenBreakeven
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS2 4.87% +0.13pp 1
10-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS10 5.18% +0.17pp 2
30-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS30 5.47% +0.12pp 3
10Y minus 2Y Treasury spreadT10Y2Y 0.36% +0.09pp 4
Fed funds target range, upper limitDFEDTARU 4.00% unch. 5
10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield)DFII10 2.85% +0.17pp 6
10-Year breakeven inflationT10YIE 2.34% +0.01pp 7

Equities

Indices8, 9 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
S&P 500
6,0008,0002025-092026-09S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite
20,00028,0002025-092026-09Nasdaq Composite
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
S&P 500 index levelSP500 7,743.41 +105.65 8
NASDAQ Composite index levelNASDAQCOM 27,068.72 +650.42 9

Credit

Spreads10, 11, 36, 52 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
US investment grade
0.7%1%2025-092026-09US investment grade
US high yield
2.6%3.6%2025-092026-09US high yield
Euro high yield
2.4%3.4%2025-092026-09Euro high yield
EM corporate
1.2%2%2025-092026-09EM corporate
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA US Corporate OASBAMLC0A0CM 0.79% +0.01pp 10
ICE BofA US High Yield OASBAMLH0A0HYM2 2.80% +0.10pp 11
ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index valueBAMLCC0A0CMTRIV 3,509.29 −32.12 12
ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index valueBAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV 1,883.57 −14.25 13

FX & commodities

Dollar and crude14, 17 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
Broad dollar index
1171222025-092026-09Broad dollar index
Brent
$40$1402025-092026-09Brent
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & servicesDTWEXBGS 119.51 +1.30 14
Nominal advanced foreign economies USD indexDTWEXAFEGS 113.15 +1.38 15
WTI crude spot (EIA)DCOILWTICO $96.41 −10.61 16
Brent crude spot (EIA)DCOILBRENTEU $114.89 −15.91 17

Macro data

SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
CPI-U all items, SACPIAUCSL 334.13August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-11 unch. 18
Core PCE price index, SAPCEPILFE 130.66July 2026 · as known on 2026-08-26 unch. 19
Nonfarm payrolls, SAPAYEMS 159,075kAugust 2026 · as known on 2026-09-04 unch. 20
Unemployment rate, SAUNRATE 4.10%August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-04 unch. 21
Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAARGDPNOW 5.02%Q3 2026 · as known on 2026-09-25 −0.06pp 22
U. Michigan consumer sentimentUMCSENT 51.70August 2026 · as known on 2026-08-28 −3.50 23

United Kingdom

Gilt curve25, 26, 27 2026-09-25 2026-09-18 the last observation on or before each date
4.8%5.8%5y10y20y2026-09-182026-09-25
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Bank RateGBPOL 3.75% unch. 24
5-year gilt nominal par yieldGB5Y 4.88% −0.05pp 25
10-year gilt nominal par yieldGB10Y 5.29% −0.07pp 26
20-year gilt nominal par yieldGB20Y 5.63% −0.11pp 27
SONIA, sterling overnight index averageIUDSOIA 3.73% unch. 28
USD per GBPDEXUSUK 1.3372 −0.0152 29
UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTGBM156S 4.90%May 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 30
UK real GDP, SA, GBP millionNGDPRSAXDCGBQ 712,545.00Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 31

Euro area

Euro area AAA curve33, 34 2026-09-25 2026-09-18 the last observation on or before each date
3.2%3.6%2y10y2026-09-182026-09-25
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ECB deposit facility rateEAPOL 2.50% unch. 32
Euro area AAA 2-year spot yieldEA2Y 3.23% +0.06pp 33
Euro area AAA 10-year spot yieldEA10Y 3.57% +0.03pp 34
USD per EURDEXUSEU 1.1464 −0.0140 35
ICE BofA Euro High Yield OASBAMLHE00EHYIOAS 2.77% +0.03pp 36
Euro area HICP, all items, NSACP0000EZ19M086NEST 103.66August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-17 unch. 37
Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR millionCLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19 2,913,099.70Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 38

Japan

JGB curve39, 40, 41 2026-09-25 2026-09-18 the last observation on or before each date
1%5%2y10y30y2026-09-182026-09-25
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-year JGB yieldJP2Y 1.91% +0.04pp 39
10-year JGB yieldJP10Y 3.07% +0.08pp 40
30-year JGB yieldJP30Y 4.12% +0.07pp 41
JPY per USDDEXJPUS 156.87 +3.16 42
Nikkei 225 index levelNIKKEI225 66,364.20 +2,227.95 43
Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTJPM156S 2.40%July 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 44
Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billionJPNRGDPEXP 598,950.50Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 45

Canada

Government of Canada curve47, 48 2026-09-25 2026-09-18 the last observation on or before each date
3.2%4%2y10y2026-09-182026-09-25
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Target for the overnight rateCAPOL 2.25% unch. 46
2-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA2Y 3.39% +0.04pp 47
10-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA10Y 3.97% +0.05pp 48
CAD per USDDEXCAUS 1.4008 +0.0144 49
Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRUNTTTTCAM156S 6.40%August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-15 unch. 50
Canada real GDP, SA, CAD millionNGDPRSAXDCCAQ 631,031.80Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-09-07 unch. 51

Emerging markets

EM spread and volatility53, 54 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
EM high yield corporate
2%4%2025-092026-09EM high yield corporate
EM equity volatility
10502025-092026-09EM equity volatility
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMCBPIOAS 1.34% unch. 52
ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS 2.82% +0.01pp 53
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility IndexVXEEMCLS 25.26 −2.22 54
Nominal EM economies USD indexDTWEXEMEGS 127.67 +1.22 55
CNY per USDDEXCHUS 6.6975 −0.0105 56
BRL per USDDEXBZUS 5.1596 +0.0587 57
INR per USDDEXINUS 95.870 +0.320 58
MXN per USDDEXMXUS 17.2454 +0.2750 59
KRW per USDDEXKOUS 1,387.97 +47.67 60

Model-based indicators

SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond (Board three-factor model)THREEFYTP10 0.96% unch. 61
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexNFCI −0.56 unch. 62
Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions IndexANFCI −0.57 +0.01 63
10-year expected inflation (Cleveland Fed model)EXPINF10YR 2.57%September 2026 · as known on 2026-09-11 unch. 64

Policy rate and the two-year

Policy rate and the two-year5, 1, 24, 25, 32, 33, 46, 47 Policy rate Market yield 52 weeks to 2026-09-25
United States
3%5%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
United Kingdom
3%5%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
Euro area
1%4%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
Canada
2%4%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield

Primary sources this week

Documents published 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-25 by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the White House, collected verbatim. Each excerpt is the document's first substantive paragraph, quoted verbatim.

  1. Federal Reserve · Speech · Wednesday, 23 September 2026
    Barr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter

    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you.1 My interest in access to affordable housing spans several decades. During my career, I have worked on housing and mortgage market reform and promoted access to credit for low- and moderate- income (LMI) households. I've seen…

  2. Federal Reserve · Speech · Tuesday, 22 September 2026
    Jefferson, Discount Window Modernization and Treasury Market Functioning

    As this group knows well, the Federal Reserve's discount window lending program provides liquidity to banks.2 Banks access discount window liquidity overwhelmingly through primary credit borrowing, which is offered on a "no questions asked" basis. The discount window is as old…

  3. White House · Presidential action · Friday, 25 September 2026
    Gold Star Mother’s And Family’s Day, 2026

    America is free, strong, secure, and prosperous due to the courage of the heroes in uniform who are willing to lay down their lives in the defense of our Republic. The supreme sacrifice paid by every fallen warrior is borne in perpetual sorrow and profound anguish by the loved…

  4. Bank of England · Speech · Thursday, 24 September 2026
    The outlook for inflation − speech by Clare Lombardelli

    It is an honour and a pleasure to be invited to speak to you today at the Sixth Biennial Conference on Macroeconomic Policy.

  5. Bank of England · Speech · Wednesday, 23 September 2026
    No bank too big to fail, and none too small to resolve − speech by Ruth Smith

    Good evening, everybody. It’s a pleasure to have had the opportunity to listen to many of you over the course of today’s insightful presentations and discussions on banking resolution. Thank you to the European University Institute and Florence School of Banking and Finance for…

  6. European Central Bank · Speech · Thursday, 24 September 2026
    Philip R. Lane: The outlook for the euro area economy

    Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 08/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 04/26 06/26 08/26 Total food Processed food Processed food excluding tobacco Unprocessed food 1 2 3 4 Q1 26 Q3 26 Q1 27 Q3 27 Q1 28 Q3 28 September 2026 June 2026 March 2026 December 2025 Q4 28 8 Food inflation…

  7. European Central Bank · Speech · Wednesday, 23 September 2026
    Philip R. Lane: The Outlook for the Euro Area Economy

    Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 08/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 04/26 06/26 08/26 Total food Processed food Processed food excluding tobacco Unprocessed food 1 2 3 4 Q1 26 Q3 26 Q1 27 Q3 27 Q1 28 Q3 28 September 2026 June 2026 March 2026 December 2025 Q4 288 Food inflation…

  8. European Central Bank · Speech · Wednesday, 23 September 2026
    The digitalisation of money, payments and finance

    www.ecb.europa.eu © Digital euro: where we stand 9 Investigation phase Oct 2021 – Oct 2023 Concept definition, technical exploration and design proposal Current phase Nov 2025 - ongoing Continued preparation follows a flexible and modular approach. Focus on: • Advancing…

  9. Bank of Canada · Speech · Monday, 21 September 2026
    Adapting to structural forces, navigating uncertainty

    Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how businesses and households are adapting to the long-term forces reshaping the Canadian economy. He then examines how renewed trade tensions and high energy prices are affecting the outlook for economic growth and inflation.

  10. Bank of Canada · Speech · Monday, 21 September 2026
    Navigating uncertainty and adapting to change

    Good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be here in Halifax. I’d like to thank the Halifax Partnership for the invitation and all of you for joining us today.

Sources

  1. 2-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2, vintage 2026-09-25
  2. 10-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, vintage 2026-09-25
  3. 30-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS30, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30, vintage 2026-09-25
  4. 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread — FRED series T10Y2Y, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y, vintage 2026-09-25
  5. Fed funds target range, upper limit — FRED series DFEDTARU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU, vintage 2026-09-25
  6. 10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield) — FRED series DFII10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10, vintage 2026-09-25
  7. 10-Year breakeven inflation — FRED series T10YIE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE, vintage 2026-09-25
  8. S&P 500 index level — FRED series SP500, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500, vintage 2026-09-26
  9. NASDAQ Composite index level — FRED series NASDAQCOM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM, vintage 2026-09-25
  10. ICE BofA US Corporate OAS — FRED series BAMLC0A0CM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM, vintage 2026-09-24
  11. ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2, vintage 2026-09-24
  12. ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, vintage 2026-09-24
  13. ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, vintage 2026-09-24
  14. Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & services — FRED series DTWEXBGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS, vintage 2026-09-21
  15. Nominal advanced foreign economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXAFEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXAFEGS, vintage 2026-09-21
  16. WTI crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILWTICO, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO, vintage 2026-09-23
  17. Brent crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILBRENTEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU, vintage 2026-09-23
  18. CPI-U all items, SA — FRED series CPIAUCSL, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, vintage 2026-09-11
  19. Core PCE price index, SA — FRED series PCEPILFE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE, vintage 2026-08-26
  20. Nonfarm payrolls, SA — FRED series PAYEMS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, vintage 2026-09-04
  21. Unemployment rate, SA — FRED series UNRATE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, vintage 2026-09-04
  22. Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAAR — FRED series GDPNOW, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW, vintage 2026-09-25
  23. U. Michigan consumer sentiment — FRED series UMCSENT, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, vintage 2026-08-28
  24. Bank Rate — BOE series GBPOL, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-25
  25. 5-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB5Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-25
  26. 10-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB10Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-25
  27. 20-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB20Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-25
  28. SONIA, sterling overnight index average — FRED series IUDSOIA, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IUDSOIA, vintage 2026-09-25
  29. USD per GBP — FRED series DEXUSUK, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSUK, vintage 2026-09-21
  30. UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTGBM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  31. UK real GDP, SA, GBP million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, vintage 2026-09-07
  32. ECB deposit facility rate — ECB series EAPOL, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-26
  33. Euro area AAA 2-year spot yield — ECB series EA2Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-26
  34. Euro area AAA 10-year spot yield — ECB series EA10Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-26
  35. USD per EUR — FRED series DEXUSEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU, vintage 2026-09-21
  36. ICE BofA Euro High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, vintage 2026-09-24
  37. Euro area HICP, all items, NSA — FRED series CP0000EZ19M086NEST, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST, vintage 2026-09-17
  38. Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR million — FRED series CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, vintage 2026-09-07
  39. 2-year JGB yield — MOF series JP2Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-26
  40. 10-year JGB yield — MOF series JP10Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-26
  41. 30-year JGB yield — MOF series JP30Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-26
  42. JPY per USD — FRED series DEXJPUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  43. Nikkei 225 index level — FRED series NIKKEI225, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225, vintage 2026-09-25
  44. Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTJPM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  45. Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billion — FRED series JPNRGDPEXP, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNRGDPEXP, vintage 2026-09-07
  46. Target for the overnight rate — BOC series CAPOL, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-26
  47. 2-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA2Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-26
  48. 10-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA10Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-26
  49. CAD per USD — FRED series DEXCAUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  50. Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRUNTTTTCAM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTCAM156S, vintage 2026-09-15
  51. Canada real GDP, SA, CAD million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, vintage 2026-09-07
  52. ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMCBPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS, vintage 2026-09-24
  53. ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, vintage 2026-09-24
  54. CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index — FRED series VXEEMCLS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXEEMCLS, vintage 2026-09-22
  55. Nominal EM economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXEMEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXEMEGS, vintage 2026-09-21
  56. CNY per USD — FRED series DEXCHUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  57. BRL per USD — FRED series DEXBZUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXBZUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  58. INR per USD — FRED series DEXINUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXINUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  59. MXN per USD — FRED series DEXMXUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  60. KRW per USD — FRED series DEXKOUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS, vintage 2026-09-21
  61. Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond (Board three-factor model) — FRED series THREEFYTP10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFYTP10, vintage 2026-09-22
  62. Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index — FRED series NFCI, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI, vintage 2026-09-23
  63. Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index — FRED series ANFCI, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ANFCI, vintage 2026-09-23
  64. 10-year expected inflation (Cleveland Fed model) — FRED series EXPINF10YR, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPINF10YR, vintage 2026-09-11