007 · BRIEFING

The week to Friday, 4 September 2026

Every figure below — in the commentary and in the tables alike — is a stored fact, a quoted primary-source document, or a judgement quoted from an earlier run of this engine, and every one is footnoted to its source. The facts and documents were collected as of Friday, 4 September 2026. All weeks · Review: Q3 2026.

The week's largest moves, each measured against that series' own 52-week range.

2.35%7
10-Year breakeven inflation
+0.04pp on the week
$91.4816
WTI crude spot (EIA)
+6.91 on the week
0.81%10
ICE BofA US Corporate OAS
+0.02pp on the week
3,575.5512
ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index value
−9.67 on the week

Overheating persists, and the week's sharp jump in crude with a firmer breakeven says price pressure is rebuilding. Corporate spreads widened slightly and index total return fell. Stay short duration, keep credit risk light, hold energy exposure.

Regime

The regime classification still reads as overheating, and the model's persistence in that state is high enough that a shift over the coming month is unlikely. The growth side of the signal is the weaker leg: the gap above trend is slight, and it is the inflation side that carries the case. The measured inflation gap is negative, which sits awkwardly against a core price series that is running at the top of its recent range and still rising. The resolution is timing: the gap is built on a lagged and revised vintage, while the crude move and the firmer breakeven are current, and I weight the current evidence more heavily. That argues for keeping duration short and holding energy exposure rather than trimming it.

Regime61 raw gaps growth gap across, inflation gap up. The dot is this month's raw gap pair. The washed corner is the quadrant REGIME's sign rule chose (Contraction); the HMM label is Overheating, marked in the bars. Period 2026-07-01, available 2026-08-01.
StagflationOverheatingContractionGoldilocksgrowth gap +0.05, inflation gap -0.76raw gapsContraction0.14Goldilocks0.12Overheating0.54Stagflation0.19

Monetary policy

The policy path is asymmetric to the upside, which argues for keeping duration short. Waller framed the next decision as conditional on the August inflation print, saying that if progress continues he is "willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level"1, but that "if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike"2.

The bar for tightening is low, because he judges that "policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy"2.

This narrows rather than contradicts the overheating case. Waller sees disinflation underway and does not treat energy as a broad pass-through risk, noting his earlier worry that "higher energy prices would bleed into many goods and services prices hasn't come to pass, at least so far"3. He still flags that "Energy prices have moved up again"4.

A hike is the live risk at this meeting, and short duration is the cheapest way to hold it.

Policy rate and the two-year5, 1, 24, 25, 32, 33, 46, 47 Policy rate Market yield 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
United States
3%5%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
United Kingdom
3%5%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
Euro area
1%3%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield
Canada
2.2%3.2%2025-092026-09Policy rateMarket yield

Rates and curve

Stay short duration. The move came at the long end and in inflation compensation, not in policy expectations. The ten-year rose +4bp5 to 4.77%6, close to its fifty-two week high of 4.79%7, and the thirty-year rose +3bp8 to 5.25%9. The two-year was unchanged at 4.34%10, and the upper bound of the federal funds target was unchanged at 3.75%11. The ten-year breakeven rose +4bp12 to 2.35%13, with the real ten-year yield unchanged at 2.42%14; the entire nominal move was priced inflation. The two-to-ten spread widened +2bp15 to 0.41%16. A curve steepening driven wholly by breakevens with the front end pinned is the clearest confirmation that price pressure is rebuilding rather than growth.

Treasury curve1, 2, 3 2026-09-04 2026-08-28 the last observation on or before each date
4.2%5.4%2y10y30y2026-08-282026-09-04
Ten-year, real and breakeven2, 6, 7 Nominal Real Breakeven 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
1%5%2025-09-082026-09-04NominalRealBreakeven
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS2 4.34% +0.14pp 1
10-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS10 4.77% +0.10pp 2
30-Year Treasury constant maturityDGS30 5.25% +0.06pp 3
10Y minus 2Y Treasury spreadT10Y2Y 0.41% +0.02pp 4
Fed funds target range, upper limitDFEDTARU 3.75% unch. 5
10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield)DFII10 2.42% +0.08pp 6
10-Year breakeven inflationT10YIE 2.35% +0.04pp 7

Credit

Keep credit risk light. Investment grade spreads widened to 0.81%17, up 2bp18 on the week and 3bp19 over four weeks, leaving them nearer the fifty-two week low of 0.73%20 than the high of 0.94%21. The corporate total return index fell -0.3%22 to 3,575.5523, a loss of 9.6724 points. High yield spreads widened 5bp25 to 2.65%26, though they are still 5bp27 tighter than four weeks ago and the high yield total return index sits close to its fifty-two week high at 1,914.8828.

The widening is too small to be a credit signal in itself, and the case for carrying less risk rests on duration and inflation rather than on spreads.

Spreads10, 11, 36, 52 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
US investment grade
0.7%1%2025-092026-09US investment grade
US high yield
2.6%3.6%2025-092026-09US high yield
Euro high yield
2.4%3.4%2025-092026-09Euro high yield
EM corporate
1.3%1.9%2025-092026-09EM corporate
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA US Corporate OASBAMLC0A0CM 0.81% +0.02pp 10
ICE BofA US High Yield OASBAMLH0A0HYM2 2.68% +0.08pp 11
ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index valueBAMLCC0A0CMTRIV 3,575.34 −9.88 12
ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index valueBAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV 1,913.45 −2.96 13

Equities

Equities give no reason to add risk here. The S&P closed the week at 7,718.6029, up +6.8430 points, or +0.1%31, and is still -39.0432 points lower over four weeks against a fifty-two week high of 7,798.9933. The Nasdaq at 26,584.0634 gained +0.7%35 on the week but remains -106.5636 points below its level four weeks ago. Index gains this thin do not offset the case for short duration and light credit risk.

Indices8, 9 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
S&P 500
6,0008,0002025-092026-09S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite
20,00028,0002025-092026-09Nasdaq Composite
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
S&P 500 index levelSP500 7,718.60 +6.84 8
NASDAQ Composite index levelNASDAQCOM 26,506.99 +104.57 9

FX and commodities

Hold the energy exposure. Brent rose to 96.0237 a barrel, up +6.2738 on the week and +8.4039 over four weeks; WTI closed at 91.4840 after a +6.9141 gain. The dollar did not amplify the move: the broad index sits at 118.7542, down -0.3243 over four weeks, with the euro at 1.159844. The oil impulse is therefore domestic in effect, not offset by currency.

Dollar and crude14, 17 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
Broad dollar index
1171222025-092026-08Broad dollar index
Brent
$40$1402025-092026-09Brent
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & servicesDTWEXBGS 118.75 +0.69 14
Nominal advanced foreign economies USD indexDTWEXAFEGS 112.23 — 15
WTI crude spot (EIA)DCOILWTICO $91.48 +7.58 16
Brent crude spot (EIA)DCOILBRENTEU $96.02 +7.78 17

Macro data

The activity data keep the short-duration stance in place, but the inflation evidence behind it is thinner than the growth evidence. Tracked growth sits at 4.75%45, the high of the past year 4.75%46 and far above the low 1.24%47. Payrolls at 159,07548 are also a one-year high, with unemployment at its low of 4.10%49. Core PCE stands at 130.6650 and headline CPI at 332.8151, below its 333.9852 peak. These are price levels, not proof that inflation is accelerating. Sentiment at 55.2053 is nearer the year's low than its high.

SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
CPI-U all items, SACPIAUCSL 332.81July 2026 · as known on 2026-08-12 unch. 18
Core PCE price index, SAPCEPILFE 130.66July 2026 · as known on 2026-08-26 unch. 19
Nonfarm payrolls, SAPAYEMS 159,075kAugust 2026 · as known on 2026-09-04 +217k 20
Unemployment rate, SAUNRATE 4.10%August 2026 · as known on 2026-09-04 unch. 21
Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAARGDPNOW 4.75%Q3 2026 · as known on 2026-09-03 +0.14pp 22
U. Michigan consumer sentimentUMCSENT 55.20July 2026 · as known on 2026-07-31 unch. 23

Fiscal and trade policy

Policy this week adds to the price-pressure case rather than cutting against it. The beef order directs a review of authorities for mandatory country-of-origin labeling and instructs agencies to weigh the effects, while stating that the national herd is at a multi-decade low and that consumer demand has grown over the past decade: "But the national herd is at a 75-year low"54. Labeling and trade restrictions raise landed costs. Food price pressure is likely to persist into next year, which argues for keeping duration short and holding energy exposure.

United Kingdom

Gilt curve25, 26, 27 2026-09-04 2026-08-28 the last observation on or before each date
4.4%5.6%5y10y20y2026-08-282026-09-04
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Bank RateGBPOL 3.75% — 24
5-year gilt nominal par yieldGB5Y 4.61% — 25
10-year gilt nominal par yieldGB10Y 5.07% — 26
20-year gilt nominal par yieldGB20Y 5.56% — 27
SONIA, sterling overnight index averageIUDSOIA 3.73% — 28
USD per GBPDEXUSUK 1.3555 −0.0089 29
UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTGBM156S 4.90%April 2026 · as known on 2026-08-17 — 30
UK real GDP, SA, GBP millionNGDPRSAXDCGBQ 709,598.00Q1 2026 · as known on 2026-07-06 — 31

Euro area

Euro area AAA curve33, 34 2026-09-04 2026-08-28 the last observation on or before each date
2.8%3.4%2y10y2026-08-282026-09-04
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ECB deposit facility rateEAPOL 2.25% — 32
Euro area AAA 2-year spot yieldEA2Y 2.88% — 33
Euro area AAA 10-year spot yieldEA10Y 3.35% — 34
USD per EURDEXUSEU 1.1598 −0.0086 35
ICE BofA Euro High Yield OASBAMLHE00EHYIOAS 2.66% — 36
Euro area HICP, all items, NSACP0000EZ19M086NEST 103.22July 2026 · as known on 2026-08-19 — 37
Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR millionCLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19 2,896,651.90Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-08-14 — 38

Japan

JGB curve39, 40, 41 2026-09-04 2026-08-28 the last observation on or before each date
1%5%2y10y30y2026-08-282026-09-04
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
2-year JGB yieldJP2Y 1.83% — 39
10-year JGB yieldJP10Y 2.91% — 40
30-year JGB yieldJP30Y 3.96% — 41
JPY per USDDEXJPUS 159.97 +1.06 42
Nikkei 225 index levelNIKKEI225 65,020.94 — 43
Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRHUTTTTJPM156S 2.50%June 2026 · as known on 2026-08-17 — 44
Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billionJPNRGDPEXP 598,288.00Q2 2026 · as known on 2026-08-16 — 45

Canada

Government of Canada curve47, 48 2026-09-04 2026-08-28 the last observation on or before each date
3%3.8%2y10y2026-08-282026-09-04
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
Target for the overnight rateCAPOL 2.25% — 46
2-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA2Y 3.08% — 47
10-year Government of Canada benchmarkCA10Y 3.77% — 48
CAD per USDDEXCAUS 1.3895 — 49
Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SALRUNTTTTCAM156S 6.40%July 2026 · as known on 2026-08-17 — 50
Canada real GDP, SA, CAD millionNGDPRSAXDCCAQ 625,170.00Q1 2026 · as known on 2026-06-08 — 51

Emerging markets

EM spread and volatility53, 54 52 weeks to 2026-09-04
EM high yield corporate
2%4%2025-092026-09EM high yield corporate
EM equity volatility
10502025-092026-09EM equity volatility
SeriesYearLatestWeek changeSource
ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMCBPIOAS 1.36% — 52
ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OASBAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS 2.84% — 53
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility IndexVXEEMCLS 23.25 — 54
Nominal EM economies USD indexDTWEXEMEGS 127.06 — 55
CNY per USDDEXCHUS 6.7260 — 56
BRL per USDDEXBZUS 5.2168 — 57
INR per USDDEXINUS 95.380 — 58
MXN per USDDEXMXUS 17.0430 — 59
KRW per USDDEXKOUS 1,379.41 — 60

Sources for the commentary

  1. Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication ¶19 (2026-09-03)
  2. Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication ¶20 (2026-09-03)
  3. Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication ¶13 (2026-09-03)
  4. Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication ¶17 (2026-09-03)
  5. DGS10.chg_1w = DGS10[2026-09-03] - DGS10[2026-08-28] (2026-09-04)
  6. DGS10.latest = DGS10[2026-09-03] (2026-09-04)
  7. DGS10.hi_52w = max(DGS10[2025-09-08..2026-09-03]) (2026-09-04)
  8. DGS30.chg_1w = DGS30[2026-09-03] - DGS30[2026-08-28] (2026-09-04)
  9. DGS30.latest = DGS30[2026-09-03] (2026-09-04)
  10. DGS2.latest = DGS2[2026-09-03] (2026-09-04)
  11. DFEDTARU.latest = DFEDTARU[2026-09-04] (2026-09-04)
  12. T10YIE.chg_1w = T10YIE[2026-09-04] - T10YIE[2026-08-28] (2026-09-04)
  13. T10YIE.latest = T10YIE[2026-09-04] (2026-09-04)
  14. DFII10.latest = DFII10[2026-09-03] (2026-09-04)
  15. T10Y2Y.chg_1w = T10Y2Y[2026-09-04] - T10Y2Y[2026-08-28] (2026-09-04)
  16. T10Y2Y.latest = T10Y2Y[2026-09-04] (2026-09-04)
  17. BAMLC0A0CM.latest = BAMLC0A0CM[2026-09-03] (2026-09-03)
  18. BAMLC0A0CM.chg_1w = BAMLC0A0CM[2026-09-03] - BAMLC0A0CM[2026-08-28] (2026-09-03)
  19. BAMLC0A0CM.chg_4w = BAMLC0A0CM[2026-09-03] - BAMLC0A0CM[2026-08-07] (2026-09-03)
  20. BAMLC0A0CM.lo_52w = min(BAMLC0A0CM[2025-09-08..2026-09-03]) (2026-09-03)
  21. BAMLC0A0CM.hi_52w = max(BAMLC0A0CM[2025-09-08..2026-09-03]) (2026-09-03)
  22. BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV.pct_1w = (BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-09-03] - BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-08-28]) / BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-08-28] * 100 (2026-09-03)
  23. BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV.latest = BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-09-03] (2026-09-03)
  24. BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV.chg_1w = BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-09-03] - BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV[2026-08-28] (2026-09-03)
  25. BAMLH0A0HYM2.chg_1w = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-09-03] - BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-08-28] (2026-09-03)
  26. BAMLH0A0HYM2.latest = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-09-03] (2026-09-03)
  27. BAMLH0A0HYM2.chg_4w = BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-09-03] - BAMLH0A0HYM2[2026-08-07] (2026-09-03)
  28. BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV.latest = BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV[2026-09-03] (2026-09-03)
  29. SP500.latest = SP500[2026-09-04] (2026-09-05)
  30. SP500.chg_1w = SP500[2026-09-04] - SP500[2026-08-28] (2026-09-05)
  31. SP500.pct_1w = (SP500[2026-09-04] - SP500[2026-08-28]) / SP500[2026-08-28] * 100 (2026-09-05)
  32. SP500.chg_4w = SP500[2026-09-04] - SP500[2026-08-07] (2026-09-05)
  33. SP500.hi_52w = max(SP500[2025-09-08..2026-09-04]) (2026-09-05)
  34. NASDAQCOM.latest = NASDAQCOM[2026-09-03] (2026-09-03)
  35. NASDAQCOM.pct_1w = (NASDAQCOM[2026-09-03] - NASDAQCOM[2026-08-28]) / NASDAQCOM[2026-08-28] * 100 (2026-09-03)
  36. NASDAQCOM.chg_4w = NASDAQCOM[2026-09-03] - NASDAQCOM[2026-08-07] (2026-09-03)
  37. DCOILBRENTEU.latest = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-01] (2026-09-02)
  38. DCOILBRENTEU.chg_1w = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-01] - DCOILBRENTEU[2026-08-28] (2026-09-02)
  39. DCOILBRENTEU.chg_4w = DCOILBRENTEU[2026-09-01] - DCOILBRENTEU[2026-08-07] (2026-09-02)
  40. DCOILWTICO.latest = DCOILWTICO[2026-09-01] (2026-09-02)
  41. DCOILWTICO.chg_1w = DCOILWTICO[2026-09-01] - DCOILWTICO[2026-08-28] (2026-09-02)
  42. DTWEXBGS.latest = DTWEXBGS[2026-08-28] (2026-08-31)
  43. DTWEXBGS.chg_4w = DTWEXBGS[2026-08-28] - DTWEXBGS[2026-08-07] (2026-08-31)
  44. DEXUSEU.latest = DEXUSEU[2026-08-28] (2026-08-31)
  45. GDPNOW.latest = GDPNOW[2026-07-01] (2026-09-03)
  46. GDPNOW.hi_52w = max(GDPNOW[2025-10-01..2026-07-01]) (2026-09-03)
  47. GDPNOW.lo_52w = min(GDPNOW[2025-10-01..2026-07-01]) (2026-09-03)
  48. PAYEMS.latest = PAYEMS[2026-08-01] (2026-09-04)
  49. UNRATE.lo_52w = min(UNRATE[2025-11-01..2026-08-01]) (2026-09-04)
  50. PCEPILFE.latest = PCEPILFE[2026-07-01] (2026-08-26)
  51. CPIAUCSL.latest = CPIAUCSL[2026-07-01] (2026-08-12)
  52. CPIAUCSL.hi_52w = max(CPIAUCSL[2025-11-01..2026-07-01]) (2026-08-12)
  53. UMCSENT.latest = UMCSENT[2026-07-01] (2026-07-31)
  54. Supporting America’s Ranchers ¶1 (2026-09-04)

The same piece at other lengths, written from the same gated evidence (markdown): the brief version, the extended version.

Primary sources this week

Documents published 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-04 by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the White House, collected verbatim. Each excerpt is the document's first substantive paragraph, quoted verbatim.

  1. Federal Reserve · Speech · Thursday, 3 September 2026
    Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication

    Thank you, Howard. To set the stage before we talk, let me give you a sense of my thinking, as of today, about the economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy.1 The short version is that, while inflation remains meaningfully above the Federal Open Market…

  2. Federal Reserve · Speech · Tuesday, 1 September 2026
    Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record

    At the Second-Chance Lending Forum, Developing Evidence-Based Policy on Creditworthiness and Criminal History, Washington, D.C.

  3. White House · Presidential action · Friday, 4 September 2026
    Supporting America’s Ranchers

    Section 1. Policy. Ranchers play a vital role in our Nation’s food supply chain and cultural heritage. These hardworking Americans ensure that our country has a reliable domestic source of high-quality animal protein products, and a secure, plentiful domestic ranching industry…

  4. White House · Presidential action · Friday, 4 September 2026
    Promoting Fair Competition In Livestock Markets And Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producers

    Section 1. Purpose. American ranchers want to be able to butcher, process, package, and sell their meat to consumers across State lines while maintaining the highest standards of food safety and avoid being overcharged by monopolistic practices by meat processors. It is the…

  5. Bank of England · Speech · Friday, 4 September 2026
    The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey

    I would like to reflect on independent central banks as institutions, and how their authority is grounded and is challenged.

  6. Bank of England · Speech · Thursday, 3 September 2026
    Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill

    In my remarks today, I will survey the impact of recent events in the Middle East on the outlook for monetary policy here in the UK. Drawing on staff analysis prepared for the MPC’s deliberations, I will explore the issue through three distinct (though homophonic[3]) lenses.

  7. European Central Bank · Speech · Friday, 4 September 2026
    Philip R. Lane: Diversity at the European Central Bank

    Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Diversity and inclusion (D&I) at the ECB 2 PUBLIC STATEMENT, SINCE 2010 “Diversity is a key contributor to our success. As a European Union institution, the ECB aspires to be an organisation in which diversity is welcomed and appreciated in all its…

  8. European Central Bank · Speech · Tuesday, 1 September 2026
    Boris Vujčić: Listening to households: expectations, behaviour and monetary policy

    Thank you, Michael, and thank you to ESMT for the invitation. It is a pleasure to be here for this inauguration and to speak about a topic to which Michael has made an outstanding contribution: how households form expectations and why those expectations matter for monetary…

  9. Bank of Japan · Speech · Wednesday, 2 September 2026
    Bank of Japan speech, 2026-09-02

    Overseas economies have grown moderately on the whole. Regarding the U.S. economy, despite initial concern s that domestic demand might decline due to the impact of wide ranging tariffs imposed in April 2025 by the Trump administration, the actual impact has been limited.…

  10. Bank of Canada · Policy rate announcement · Wednesday, 2 September 2026
    Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%

    The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

  11. Bank of Canada · Speech · Thursday, 3 September 2026
    Unveiling of Vertical $20 Bank Note

    I’d like to welcome Her Excellency the Right Honourable Louise Arbour, Governor General of Canada. The Governor General is the King’s representative in Canada. That is important every day, but it’s especially significant to have Her Excellency with us today. You will see why in…

  12. Bank of Canada · Speech · Wednesday, 2 September 2026
    Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement

    Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision.

Sources

  1. 2-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2, vintage 2026-09-04
  2. 10-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, vintage 2026-09-04
  3. 30-Year Treasury constant maturity — FRED series DGS30, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30, vintage 2026-09-04
  4. 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread — FRED series T10Y2Y, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y, vintage 2026-09-04
  5. Fed funds target range, upper limit — FRED series DFEDTARU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU, vintage 2026-09-04
  6. 10-Year TIPS constant maturity (real yield) — FRED series DFII10, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10, vintage 2026-09-04
  7. 10-Year breakeven inflation — FRED series T10YIE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE, vintage 2026-09-04
  8. S&P 500 index level — FRED series SP500, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500, vintage 2026-09-09
  9. NASDAQ Composite index level — FRED series NASDAQCOM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM, vintage 2026-09-04
  10. ICE BofA US Corporate OAS — FRED series BAMLC0A0CM, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM, vintage 2026-09-04
  11. ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2, vintage 2026-09-04
  12. ICE BofA US Corporate Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV, vintage 2026-09-04
  13. ICE BofA US High Yield Index total return index value — FRED series BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV, vintage 2026-09-04
  14. Trade-weighted USD index, broad goods & services — FRED series DTWEXBGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS, vintage 2026-08-31
  15. Nominal advanced foreign economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXAFEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXAFEGS, vintage 2026-08-31
  16. WTI crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILWTICO, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO, vintage 2026-09-02
  17. Brent crude spot (EIA) — FRED series DCOILBRENTEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU, vintage 2026-09-02
  18. CPI-U all items, SA — FRED series CPIAUCSL, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, vintage 2026-08-12
  19. Core PCE price index, SA — FRED series PCEPILFE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE, vintage 2026-08-26
  20. Nonfarm payrolls, SA — FRED series PAYEMS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, vintage 2026-09-04
  21. Unemployment rate, SA — FRED series UNRATE, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, vintage 2026-09-04
  22. Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP nowcast, SAAR — FRED series GDPNOW, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW, vintage 2026-09-03
  23. U. Michigan consumer sentiment — FRED series UMCSENT, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, vintage 2026-07-31
  24. Bank Rate — BOE series GBPOL, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-07
  25. 5-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB5Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-08
  26. 10-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB10Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-08
  27. 20-year gilt nominal par yield — BOE series GB20Y, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/, vintage 2026-09-08
  28. SONIA, sterling overnight index average — FRED series IUDSOIA, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IUDSOIA, vintage 2026-09-04
  29. USD per GBP — FRED series DEXUSUK, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSUK, vintage 2026-08-31
  30. UK unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTGBM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S, vintage 2026-08-17
  31. UK real GDP, SA, GBP million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCGBQ, vintage 2026-07-06
  32. ECB deposit facility rate — ECB series EAPOL, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-09
  33. Euro area AAA 2-year spot yield — ECB series EA2Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-09
  34. Euro area AAA 10-year spot yield — ECB series EA10Y, https://data.ecb.europa.eu/, vintage 2026-09-09
  35. USD per EUR — FRED series DEXUSEU, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU, vintage 2026-08-31
  36. ICE BofA Euro High Yield OAS — FRED series BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, vintage 2026-09-04
  37. Euro area HICP, all items, NSA — FRED series CP0000EZ19M086NEST, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST, vintage 2026-08-19
  38. Euro area real GDP, chain-linked, SA, EUR million — FRED series CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA19, vintage 2026-08-14
  39. 2-year JGB yield — MOF series JP2Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-09
  40. 10-year JGB yield — MOF series JP10Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-09
  41. 30-year JGB yield — MOF series JP30Y, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/, vintage 2026-09-09
  42. JPY per USD — FRED series DEXJPUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  43. Nikkei 225 index level — FRED series NIKKEI225, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225, vintage 2026-09-04
  44. Japan unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRHUTTTTJPM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S, vintage 2026-08-17
  45. Japan real GDP, chain-linked, SA, JPY billion — FRED series JPNRGDPEXP, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNRGDPEXP, vintage 2026-08-16
  46. Target for the overnight rate — BOC series CAPOL, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-09
  47. 2-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA2Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-09
  48. 10-year Government of Canada benchmark — BOC series CA10Y, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/, vintage 2026-09-09
  49. CAD per USD — FRED series DEXCAUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  50. Canada unemployment rate, 15 and over, SA — FRED series LRUNTTTTCAM156S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTCAM156S, vintage 2026-08-17
  51. Canada real GDP, SA, CAD million — FRED series NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCCAQ, vintage 2026-06-08
  52. ICE BofA EM Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMCBPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS, vintage 2026-09-04
  53. ICE BofA EM High Yield Corporate Plus OAS — FRED series BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, vintage 2026-09-04
  54. CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index — FRED series VXEEMCLS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXEEMCLS, vintage 2026-09-04
  55. Nominal EM economies USD index — FRED series DTWEXEMEGS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXEMEGS, vintage 2026-08-31
  56. CNY per USD — FRED series DEXCHUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  57. BRL per USD — FRED series DEXBZUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXBZUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  58. INR per USD — FRED series DEXINUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXINUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  59. MXN per USD — FRED series DEXMXUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  60. KRW per USD — FRED series DEXKOUS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS, vintage 2026-08-31
  61. Regime label, growth and inflation gaps, transition probabilities — REGIME series Overheating, /regime/output/regime_labels.csv, vintage 2026-08-01